According to Ran Neuner and Steven Sidley, who joined Kitco editor and lead anchor Michelle Makori in a panel discussion, Bitcoin’s price dropped below $20,000 in June, the worst days of the Crypto winter being over.
“We’ve hit rock bottom in crypto,” said Neuner, host of Crypto Banter, a popular crypto-themed podcast. “Crypto suffered one of the largest liquidations we have ever seen. We had the collapse of the LUNA ecosystem, a $100 billion ecosystem, that triggered a cascade of market-wide sell-off.
Sidley, a professor at the University of Johannesburg and head of the university’s Blockchain and CryptoVerse research group, agreed with Neuner, but with some caveats.
“There are still a few things staring us in the face,” warned Sidley, who is also a bestselling author and director of Bridge Capital Future Advisory. “China’s decision to invade Taiwan is a possible Black Swan event. If Russia decides to escalate its aggression to nuclear weapons, it will be another Black Swan event… but in many ways I agree with Ran that at the end of [The Crypto Winter.]”
A Black Swan event is an unexpected event that has a significant impact on the markets.
Crypto Winter Thaw
Neuner, who is also the co-founder and CEO of Onchain Capital, used Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average to back up his claim that the cryptocurrency will continue its rally. The 200-week moving average is the longest measure of Bitcoin’s uptrend. Bitcoin’s spot price has fallen below this metric only three times: in 2015, 2020 and 2022.
“Every time [Bitcoin’s spot price hit the moving-average]it bounced back and gave investors huge returns,” Neuner said. “The times it’s fallen below the 200-week moving average has been Black Swan events.”
However, Neuner said investors should monitor the “macro environment”, which can affect Bitcoin’s price.
“As long as the macro environment continues to work, I think it will be fine,” he said. “The odds are about 50-50 whether the Fed will raise [rates] 50 basis points or 75 basis points, and I think the market has already priced in those rate increases. Whether we’re at a low or not, I can safely say we’ve probably hit the cryptocurrency unless there’s another Black Swan event… but I think we’ve had the best days, colder in the winter.
Wealth management firm BlackRock recently announced a partnership with Coinbase to provide Bitcoin access to institutional clients. However, this did not appear to have a significant impact on Bitcoin’s price.
“In a bear market, the market doesn’t respond to good news, and we know we’re really in a bear market,” Neuner said. “We thought the news of BlackRock would move the market, and it’s not at all.”
Sidley added: “BlackRock’s announcement was very profound. This one [firm has] $10 trillion in assets they manage.
However, he said Bitcoin’s price has not risen since BlackRock’s announcement due to adverse regulatory developments.
“There is a regulatory pushback,” Sidley said. “Although BlackRock can say, ‘we are going to introduce our customers to’ [Bitcoin]”Everyone is looking the other way now, that’s the regulators trying to control it and slow this thing down.”
Watch the video above for Neuner and Sidley’s Bitcoin price predictions.
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