Old real estate: the silence soon?

Charles Marinakis
© DR

According to figures collected by Century 21, the rise in real estate prices in the old is particularly strong between 1er semester 2021 and the 1er mid 2022: +10.7% for homes, +7.4% for apartments; with records at stake: an average of €2,552/m² for houses, “that drive the market crazy” according to new president Charles Marinakis, and €4,061/m² for apartments.

“These historically high price levels have a direct impact on business activity: the number of transactions fell in the housing segment (-7.9%) and increased only very slightly in the apartment segment (+1.7% year on year)”, the leader said. of Century together 21.

Once this comment is made, Century 21 wants to make some nuances, given the results for the second quarter of 2022: there is a slowdown in prices, more important in the apartment segment than in that of houses, for which the French hunger is still continues to be strong, which has direct consequences for activity: it rises again at 1er semester 2022.

Of the buyers, only the over-50s – usually second buyers who benefit from a higher co-payment – ​​have seen their share rise: they now account for 34.8% of transactions. The largest increase is observed among the over-60s, whose share among buyers increases by +9.5%.

The distribution according to the destination of the goods has changed little: 63.4% of the transactions concern the purchase of a main house, 29.8% of the acquisitions are intended for rental investments (-2.3% on an annual basis). Second home purchases fell by -6.3% and represent 6.9% of transactions.

Paris is not France

In Paris, contrary to national trends, prices were stable over 12 months (+0.1% between 1er semester 2021 and the 1er semester 2022); they even tend to fall back slightly at 1er mid 2022. However, the price per square meter in Paris (average €10,299) still remains higher than in 2019. This rebalancing is paying off and the air of the Parisian market looks good: the number of sales has increased with 17 .3% over 12 months and activity at 1er half of 2022 is particularly vibrant.

Dynamics yes, frenzy no: Average selling time has increased to 78 days over 12 months, the highest level ever in the capital. By comparison, in 2011, these sales times were 44 days. The takeover amounts remain substantial: for an area of ​​approximately 52 m², an average of € 535,480 is now needed to buy a Parisian apartment.

Rising interest rates, combined with housing benefits and new regulations on the energy performance of homes, have put an end to investor impulses, Century 21 notes. Less profitable and more restrictive, rental investments saw their share of acquisitions fall by -18.6% to return to levels below 2018 (26.3% on 1er semester 2022; they were 26.8% in 2018).

New record in Île-de-France

The price per square meter of houses in the Ile-de-France region continued to rise sharply between 1er semester 2021 and the 1er mid-2022 (+9.1%) a new record with an average of € 3,736/m². The average purchase price of a house reached unprecedented heights: € 424,473 (+9.8% over 12 months).

But the activity is no longer there and the number of transactions fell by -10.6% in one year. at 1er Prices will adjust in half of 2022, with the increase more moderate. Sales times, more than a year, are getting even shorter; they are at 61 days in the home segment, i.e. the shortest duration since 2011.

The apartment market is very different: prices have been stable for a year (now €4,622/sqm), sales times have been extended by seven days (73 days on average) and activity has slowed more moderately (-5.3% between 1er semester 2021 and the 1er semester 2022); it has even risen sharply in recent months.

The share of acquisitions intended for investment, which had reached its highest level a year ago, decreased (-9.1%) but remained at a higher level than in 2020 (24% on 1er semester 2022).

The regions, winners of the Covid

In the regions, the houses remain the big winners of the post-Covid movements. It is undoubtedly the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur region that has seen its prices rise the fastest in a year: +15.5% for houses (of which the average price per square meter is € 4,270) and +10.8% for apartments (€ 4,508 /m²). Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, on the other hand, show relatively moderate increases (between 7 and 7.3% for houses and between 4.7 and 5.3% for apartments).

These developments make the differences between the regions even greater: the average price per square meter of a house is €1,561 in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, while in Paca it is €4,270. An apartment can be bought for an average of €2,092/m² in Grand-Est, compared to more than double (€4,508/m²) in Paca.

“There is no doubt that with inflation at 5.2% to date, the issue of purchasing power will become crucial for the vast majority of households, and the rest-to-live the sticking point when taking out a loan from banking institutions .” notes Charles Marinakis. “This is likely to weigh heavily on market dynamics in the coming months and should lead to a marked slowdown in property price growth. If so, that’s good news, because this price lull is desirable and desirable. †

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