• We are now used to finding out monthly through Emrhod Consulting that Kaïs Saïed would win the next presidential election in the first round
• A novelty: this time only 59% of Tunisians express their satisfaction with the performance of the President of the Republic, compared to 82% in August 2021
• The PDL could win 35% of the voters’ votes in the next parliamentary election, giving its president, Abir Moussi, the ability to form the next government, in case current electoral law is enforced.
Commissioned by Business News and Attassiaâ TV, the Emrhod Consulting Institute provides the accounts for the month of April 2022 which reveal the usual results. First, Kaïs Saïed would repot the presidential election in the first round with 72% of the vote if the elections take place tomorrow, that is, a day after the publication of the conclusions of the poll in question. He is still closely followed by Abir Moussi with 7% of the vote. Then, before the parliamentary elections, it is the Free Destourian Party (PDL), chaired by Abir Moussi, who would win the day with 35% of the vote, still closely followed by Kaïs Said’s party” but which is still officially still does not exist.
Founded or launched unofficially by the poll organizers for the needs of their monthly poll, this party is said to collect 19% of the voters’ votes, a 5% drop compared to March 2022, when it managed 34% of the votes to collect votes.
Ennahdha is in 3rd place with 15%, which means that Montplaisir’s party would fail, in case it were allowed to participate in the next parliamentary elections and based on the current number of deputies (217), only 35 or 36 delegates.
Numbers change from July 25th
These are the main conclusions of the April 2022 opinion poll. They broadly confirm the conclusions of previous polls. Except that by analyzing them with a little depth, we find that there are still some changes.
For example, Kaïs Saïed loses four points by falling from 76% to 72% before the presidential elections.
As for Tunisians’ satisfaction with the president’s performance, we are now a long way from the July and August 2021 figures, when the president posted between 79 and 82.80%. Today, only 59% of respondents say they are satisfied with him.
The parliamentary elections are still under the control of the PDL, which has not fallen below 30% for two or three months, while the party that is presented as the party that will defend the ideas of the head of state – even if it is still officially has not been established – it falls for the first time since Emrhod and also Sigma Conseil introduced it in their questionnaires to less than 20%, more precisely 19%, that is, it would be represented by 45 or 46 deputies .
The logical conclusion (provided that the parliamentary elections take place according to the electoral law and according to the current number of deputies) that can be drawn from this research is to state that it is the Free Destourian Party (PDL) that would be called upon to form the party. . next government to emerge from the anticipated parliamentary elections scheduled for December 17, provided the current electoral law is enforced for the organization of this much-anticipated electoral event.
It should still be mentioned that only 72% of the respondents agreed to answer the interviewers’ questions, while the remaining 28% (nearly a third of the respondents) did not wish to speak.
What can we deduce from this? Some think that these 28% of Tunisians who have not yet decided who to vote for in the presidential or parliamentary elections could radically change the situation as they wait to see which electoral law will be held in the next election rallies.
Others believe that this proportion of disinterested or potential mugs could increase further in light of what will happen in the coming weeks.